Calculate the exact probability of hitting any number of matches from your chosen spots. Built on real hypergeometric math — the same formula keno uses.
Standard keno: 80 numbers, 20 drawn
Keno uses the hypergeometric distribution — the same math used whenever you're drawing without replacement from a finite population.
P(k matches) = C(N, k) × C(80−N, 20−k) / C(80, 20)
Where N = spots picked, k = matches, C(n,r) = combinations
In plain terms: we're counting how many ways you can pick exactly k winning numbers from your N spots, multiplied by the ways to fill the remaining draw slots from non-picked numbers, divided by all possible draws.
Because 80 numbers are in the pool and 20 are drawn, the total possible draws is C(80,20) — an astronomically large number, which is why matching many spots is so rare.
The paytable pays less than the true odds. For example, hitting all 6 in a 6-spot happens roughly 1 in 7,753 times, but many casinos pay $1,500 for a $1 bet — not $7,753. That gap is the house edge.
Every possible match count and its probability for your selected spot count.
| Matches (k) | Probability | 1 in X Odds | Cumulative (k or more) | Visual |
|---|
The paytable pays for hitting at least a minimum threshold — but many players want to know the odds of hitting a specific count. Both numbers are shown above.
"1 in 7,753" means that on average, if you played 7,753 keno games with that spot count and those picks, you'd expect to hit the jackpot approximately once. It doesn't guarantee you'll hit it in 7,753 tries — keno (like all gambling) has no memory.
For most spot counts, the most probable outcome is missing by 1–2 matches. Very few players ever hit all their spots — but many get close enough to earn smaller prizes. That's by design: paytables are built to keep lower matches losing or breaking even, while top-match prizes are rare jackpots.
Enter your bet and spot count to see expected returns and compare paytables.
Calculate PayoutsSide-by-side comparison of 4, 6, 8, and 10-spot keno variance and jackpot odds.
Compare SpotsUnderstand what these probability numbers mean and how the house edge works.
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