Why Keno Odds Are What They Are
Keno odds aren't random guesses -- they're based on a simple idea: there are only so many ways 20 numbers can be drawn from 80, and we can count exactly how many of those ways include your picks.
How the Math Works (In Plain English)
You don't need to understand the formula to play keno. The tables below give you everything you need. But here's the basic idea: there are over 3.5 quadrillion different ways the house can draw 20 numbers from 80. The odds of any particular outcome depend on how many of those quadrillions include your picks.
Want to see the actual formula? (for the math-curious)
Hypergeometric Formula for Keno
P(k matches) = C(N, k) × C(80 − N, 20 − k) / C(80, 20)
N = number of spots you picked | k = number of matches | C(n, r) = "n choose r" = n! / (r! × (n−r)!)
- C(N, k): the number of ways to choose exactly k winning numbers from your N picks.
- C(80 − N, 20 − k): the number of ways the remaining draw slots are filled from the numbers you didn't pick.
- C(80, 20): the total number of possible draws, 3,535,027,396,898,400.
Try It: Pick Your Spots
Choose how many numbers you would play and watch your real odds update instantly, no math required. Every bar below is the true hypergeometric probability of that many matches.
4-Spot Probability Table
When you pick 4 spots, there are only 5 possible outcomes (0 through 4 matches):
| Matches | Probability | 1 in X Odds | Typical Payout ($1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 matches | 30.83% | 1 in 3.2 | — |
| 1 match | 43.27% | 1 in 2.3 | — |
| 2 matches | 21.26% | 1 in 4.7 | $1 |
| 3 matches | 4.32% | 1 in 23 | $5 |
| 4 matches (jackpot) | 0.31% | 1 in 326 | $120 |
The most likely outcome for a 4-spot player is 1 match (43%), followed by 0 matches (31%). A full jackpot happens about once every 326 games. To put that in perspective: if you play 4-spot keno twice a day at your favorite bar, you'd expect to hit all 4 roughly once every 5–6 months. For the payouts behind these odds, see the 4 spot keno payout chart.
6-Spot Probability Table
| Matches | Probability | 1 in X Odds | Typical Payout ($1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 matches | 16.60% | 1 in 6.0 | — |
| 1 match | 36.39% | 1 in 2.7 | — |
| 2 matches | 30.83% | 1 in 3.2 | — |
| 3 matches | 12.98% | 1 in 7.7 | $1 |
| 4 matches | 2.85% | 1 in 35 | $4 |
| 5 matches | 0.31% | 1 in 323 | $100 |
| 6 matches (jackpot) | 0.013% | 1 in 7,753 | $1,500 |
For a 6-spot player, 1 or 2 matches covers nearly 67% of all games. The jackpot (all 6) occurs roughly once every 7,753 games. If you play one 6-spot game every 4 minutes during a two-hour session at a restaurant, that's about 30 games. You'd hit all 6 roughly once every 258 sessions like that, so it's rare, but people do hit it. For the payouts behind these odds, see the 6 spot keno payout chart.
8-Spot Probability Table
| Matches | Probability | 1 in X Odds | Typical Payout ($1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 matches | 8.83% | 1 in 11.3 | — |
| 1 match | 26.65% | 1 in 3.8 | — |
| 2 matches | 32.81% | 1 in 3.0 | — |
| 3 matches | 21.48% | 1 in 4.7 | — |
| 4 matches | 8.15% | 1 in 12.3 | — |
| 5 matches | 1.83% | 1 in 54.6 | $12 |
| 6 matches | 0.237% | 1 in 423 | $80 |
| 7 matches | 0.016% | 1 in 6,232 | $1,000 |
| 8 matches (jackpot) | 0.00043% | 1 in 230,115 | $15,000 |
Notice that 8-spot players hit 0–4 matches the vast majority of the time (97.9%). The jackpot is 30x harder to hit than a 6-spot jackpot, but pays 10x more. For the payouts behind these odds, see the 8 spot keno payout chart.
10-Spot Probability Table
| Matches | Probability | 1 in X Odds | Typical Payout ($1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 matches | 4.58% | 1 in 21.8 | — |
| 1 match | 17.96% | 1 in 5.6 | — |
| 2 matches | 29.53% | 1 in 3.4 | — |
| 3 matches | 26.74% | 1 in 3.7 | — |
| 4 matches | 14.73% | 1 in 6.8 | — |
| 5 matches | 5.14% | 1 in 19.4 | $5 |
| 6 matches | 1.15% | 1 in 87.1 | $20 |
| 7 matches | 0.161% | 1 in 621 | $140 |
| 8 matches | 0.014% | 1 in 7,384 | $1,000 |
| 9 matches | 0.00061% | 1 in 163,381 | $5,000 |
| 10 matches (jackpot) | 0.0000112% | 1 in 8,911,711 | $100,000 |
Hitting all 10 spots is one of the rarest events in lottery gaming, at nearly 9 million to 1 odds. For context, you'd need to play one game every 4 minutes for over 68 years on average before hitting it once. For the payouts behind these odds, see the 10 spot keno payout chart.
The same hypergeometric math sets the odds for every other ticket too. If you prefer the simplest bets, see the 1 spot keno payout chart, 2 spot keno payout chart, and 3 spot keno payout chart; for the middle ground between balance and a big jackpot, compare the 7 spot keno payout chart and 9 spot keno payout chart.
House Edge Explained
The house edge in keno is typically 20–35%, well above most other casino games. Here's how it compares:
| Game | Typical House Edge | Player RTP |
|---|---|---|
| Keno | 20–35% | 65–80% |
| Slot Machines | 4–8% | 92–96% |
| American Roulette | 5.26% | 94.7% |
| Baccarat | 1.06% (banker bet) | 98.9% |
| Blackjack (basic strategy) | ~0.5% | ~99.5% |
| State Lotteries (jackpot) | ~50% | ~50% |
Where Does the House Edge Come From?
The house edge arises from the gap between true odds and paytable payouts. Consider a 6-spot jackpot: the true odds are 1 in 7,753, meaning a "fair" payout would be $7,753 for a $1 bet. Instead, most paytables pay $1,500. That gap, $6,253 per occurrence, is the source of the house's profit.
This happens at every prize level. For 3 matches in a 6-spot game (which pays $1), the true odds are 1 in 7.7. A fair payout would be $7.70. The $1 payment represents a significant house edge at that tier too. Sum up all tiers and you get the overall RTP, typically 65–75%.
The Most Common Misunderstanding: "Due" Numbers
It's natural to feel like a number is "due" -- especially if you've watched it miss fifty draws in a row. But keno draws don't have a memory. Every single draw starts fresh, and every number has the same 25% chance of being picked, no matter what happened last time.
The Gambler's Fallacy in Keno
There are no "hot" or "cold" numbers in keno. Every draw is independent. "Due" numbers don't exist. Frequency charts showing past draws are entertainment, not strategy. They cannot predict future outcomes.
Why Play Keno With These Odds?
It's a fair question. Keno has a higher house edge than most casino games. So why do millions of people play it?
- Entertainment value: For many players, $20 of keno is an evening of entertainment, a bargain compared to other forms of entertainment.
- Jackpot potential: A $1 bet can return $100,000 on a 10-spot hit. That kind of upside isn't available in blackjack or roulette.
- Low minimum bet: You can play many games for $1 each, a very low entry price.
- Simplicity: No strategy to learn, no skill required, no pressure. Just pick numbers and watch.
- Social play: Lottery keno at a bar or restaurant is a shared activity, and watching the draw together is part of the experience.
See the Odds for Yourself
Use our interactive odds calculator to get exact probabilities and "1 in X" odds for any spot count and match combination.
Open Odds Calculator